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2025 Australian Election Predictions
I'm somewhat of a politics nerd, and I follow most Australian federal elections very closely. This election is no exception, and arguably, this is actually the election I've followed the closest. So much so, that I feel I can at least make an educated guess about who will win each House of Representatives seat and each Senate seat. These guesses are based on seat history, polling, general vibes around the seat, and just gut feel. There's no secret inside knowledge here (unfortunately), just my best guesses about how the election will play out.
If you can't be bothered reading all this, the tl;dr is that I think Labor will win with a (quite small) majority, the Coalition will increase their seat count from the previous election, and One Nation may pick up a lower house seat. Meanwhile in the Senate, the Coalition will remain the largest party, but will lose seats from the previous election, and the senate will end up quite diverse, with a few minor parties (left- and right-leaning) picking up the sixth seats in each state. I don't believe Trumpet of Patriots, despite their extremely prevalent and well-funded campaign, will pick up any seats in either house.
House of Reps:
New South Wales (46 electorates)
Banks: Liberal
Barton: Labor
*Bennelong: Labor
Berowra: Liberal
Blaxland: Labor
*Bradfield: Teal Independent
Calare: Independent (Andrew Gee)
Chifley: Labor
Cook: Liberal
Cowper: Teal Independent
Cunningham: Labor
Dobell: Labor
Eden-Monaro: Labor
Farrer: Liberal
Fowler: Western Sydney Community
*Gilmore: Labor
Grayndler: Labor
Greenway: Labor
Hughes: Liberal
Hume: Liberal
Hunter: One Nation
Kingsford Smith: Labor
Lindsay: Liberal
Lyne: National
Macarthur: Labor
Mackellar: Teal Independent
Macquarie: Labor
McMahon: Labor
Mitchell: Liberal
New England: National 
Newcastle: Labor
Page: National
Parkes: National
Parramatta: Labor
Paterson: Labor
Reid: Labor
Richmond: Labor
Riverina: National
*Robertson: Labor
Shortland: Labor
Sydney: Labor
Warringah: Teal Independent
Watson: Labor
Wentworth: Teal Independent
Werriwa: Labor
Whitlam: Labor
Victoria (38 electorates)
Aston: Liberal
Ballarat: Labor
Bendigo: Labor
Bruce: Labor
Calwell: Labor
Casey: Liberal
Chisholm: Labor
Cooper: Labor
Corangamite: Labor
Corio: Labor
*Deakin: Liberal
Dunkley: Labor
Flinders: Liberal
Fraser: Labor
Gellibrand: Labor
Gippsland: National
Goldstein: Teal Independent
Gorton: Labor
Hawke: Labor
Holt: Labor
Hotham: Labor
Indi: Teal Independent
Isaacs: Labor
Jagajaga: Labor
*Kooyong: Liberal
La Trobe: Liberal
Lalor: Labor
Macnamara: Labor
Mallee: National
Maribyrnong: Labor
McEwen: Labor
Melbourne: Greens
Menzies: Liberal
Monash: Liberal
Nicholls: National
Scullin: Labor
*Wannon: Liberal
Wills: Labor
Queensland (30 electorates)
Blair: Labor
Bonner: Liberal
Bowman: Liberal
**Brisbane: Greens
Capricornia: National
Dawson: National
Dickson: Liberal
Fadden: Liberal
Fairfax: Liberal
Fisher: Liberal
Flynn: National
Forde: Liberal
Griffith: Greens
Groom: Liberal
Herbert: Liberal
Hinkler: National
Kennedy: Katter
Leichhardt: Liberal
Lilley: Labor
Longman: Liberal
Maranoa: National
McPherson: Liberal
Moncrieff: Liberal
Moreton: Labor
Oxley: Labor
Petrie: Liberal
Rankin: Labor
Ryan: Greens
Wide Bay: Liberal
Wright: Liberal
Western Australia (16 electorates)
Brand: Labor
Bullwinkel: Labor
Burt: Labor
Canning: Liberal
Cowan: Labor
Curtin: Teal Independent
Durack: Liberal
Forrest: Liberal
Fremantle: Labor
Hasluck: Labor
Moore: Liberal
O’Connor: Liberal
Pearce: Labor
Perth: Labor
Swan: Labor
Tangney: Labor
South Australia (10 electorates)
Adelaide: Labor
Barker: Liberal
Boothby: Labor
Grey: Liberal
Hindmarsh: Labor
Kingston: Labor
Makin: Labor
Mayo: Centre Alliance
Spence: Labor
*Sturt: Labor
Tasmania (5 electorates)
Bass: Liberal
Braddon: Liberal
Clark: Independent (Andrew Wilkie)
Franklin: Labor
*Lyons: Liberal
Australian Capital Territory (3 electorates)
Bean: Labor
Canberra: Labor
Fenner: Labor
Northern Territory (2 electorates)
*Lingiari: Labor
Solomon: Labor
TOTALS:
Labor: 76
Coalition: 56
(Liberal: 43)
(National: 13)
Teal Independent: 8
Greens: 4
Independent: 2
Katter: 1
One Nation: 1
Center Alliance: 1
Western Sydney Community: 1
= 150
Result:
Labor majority
Prime Minister:
Anthony Albanese
* = Uncertain
** = Almost certainly Labor and not Greens, but being generous.

Senate:
New South Wales:
Liberal
Liberal
Labor
Labor
Greens
*Libertarian
Victoria:
Liberal
Liberal
Labor
Labor
Greens
*Legalise Cannabis
Queensland:
Liberal
National
Labor
Labor
Greens
One Nation
Western Australia:
Liberal
Liberal
Labor
Labor
Greens
One Nation
South Australia:
Liberal
Liberal
Labor
Labor
Greens
One Nation
Tasmania:
Liberal
Liberal
Labor
Labor
Greens
Jacqui Lambie Network
Australian Capital Territory:
Labor
David Pocock
Northern Territory (2 electorates):
Labor
Country Liberal
HALF SENATE TOTALS:
Labor: 14
Coalition: 13
(Liberal: 11)
(National: 1)
(Country Liberal: 1)
Greens: 6
One Nation: 3
Libertarian: 1
Jacqui Lambie Network: 1
Legalise Cannabis: 1
David Pocock: 1
= 40
FULL SENATE TOTALS:
Coalition: 27
(Liberal: 22)
(National: 4)
(Country Liberal: 1)
Labor: 26
Greens: 11
One Nation: 4
Libertarian: 1
United Australia: 1
Jacqui Lambie Network: 1
Independent (former Jacqui Lambie Network): 1
Australia's Voice: 1
Blak Sovereign Movement Independent (former Greens): 1
Legalise Cannabis: 1
David Pocock: 1
= 76
* = Uncertain